Critical factors in scenario-thinking and planning
1 Identify and define key stakeholder groups — persons who are interested in or affected by the scenario(s)
2 Define underlying strategic interests of each stakeholder group
3 Define and justify the scenario scope i.e. what to include and exclude — local vs. global; domestic vs. semi-professional
4 Estimate the necessary time-frame for … anticipated product/market life to ensure adequate or expected return-on-investment, incl., time for competence development, acquisition and application. time for
- design, development and market release
- product/service use life or life-cycle
- expected market life
5 Identify critical factors which will influence or affect the future — enablers and inhibitors: incl., political, economic, socio-cultural, technological and environmental factors
6 Map critical factors which are pre-determined to happen — high certainty, destined or inevitable to happen e.g. demographic change such as e.g. aging population and other strong invariance’s
7 Map critical factors that are difficult-to-determine if/how/when they will happen — high uncertainty, difficulty in ascertaining their impact or effect due to inherent complexity
8 Embed these critical factors in a set of strategically focused questions — based on the above critical factors what would you like to know about the future in order to improve the quality of decision-making
Discuss/clarify how these critical factors could impact various parts of the ‘value-chain’— suppliers, manufacturing and logistics, marketing and communications, distribution and retail
Conduct cross-impact analysis — determine the combined impact of these critical factors including counter-trends i.e. consider inhibitors as well as enablers
Outline a set of draft scenarios
- confirm or modify the scenario scope
- confirm or modify the necessary time-frame
- confirm or modify key stakeholder groups
Select and elaborate scenarios which meet the following criteria:
Are they
- plausible: credible, believable
- internally consistent, logical
- cause-effect relation
- structurally different — orthogonal dimension
Do they
- challenge conventional wisdom — novel or provocative
- possess decision-making value — discernable implication and consequence
- Interpret scenarios for their strategic and operative implication i.e. define strategic intent
Benefits of ‘visually mediated scenarios’
Visually mediated scenarios:
- are engaging cultural models of risk and opportunity.
- enable more sensory-rich forms of futures research and futures conditioning (ref.: BAA Terminal 5 case — 2020 Vision).
- enhance participatory potential in that they facilitate the fluidity of cross-disciplinary (incl., cross-cultural) communication and collaboration
- are stimulating devices for “designing WITH customers and users versus designing FOR customers and users” - they enhance processes of cultural infusion and diffusion.
- are powerful probing devices when attributes or characteristics cannot be disaggregated into independent or discrete elements; when the whole is greater than the sum of its individual parts.
- embrace the idiosyncratic, the subjective and the new.
- help mobilize tacit as well as explicit knowledge
- vitalize distinct, yet complimentary differences in cognitive style, e.g. forecasting and backcasting approaches.
- facilitate iterative, generative, and collaborative learning.
- significantly enhance traditional forms of customer/user research.
- have the power and capability to revolutionize futures thinking.
Prof. Heidkamp October 2004 // Source:dffn Humantec project